2004 Tour de France Preview

Lance. Jan. Tyler. That is your podium in Paris.

I believe Lance can win six. That is not to say he is a greater champion than the other four who’ve won five – Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault and Indurain – but only to say he has focused on the Tour more solely than the others.

And if any man had won six Tours before Lance, then people would give him a much greater chance at winning and we’d have a more similar situation to last year when everybody believed Lance would win and we were treated to the most thrilling, competitive duel at the Tour since LeMond and Fignon in ’89.

Anquetil was beaten by Lucien Aimar in ’66 when he tried for six after sitting out the ’65 Tour won by Felice Gimondi.

Merckx was beaten by Bernard Thevenet after being attacked by a spectator. Hinault was beaten by his own teammate, Greg LeMond, after a furious battle throughout the mountain stages.

Indurain was beaten by Bjarne Riis in 1996, exactly one decade after Hinault’s quest for six Tours came to an end.

There is only one common thread in all these loses – time. Time caught Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault, and Indurain. When you think of winning five, you must be flawless for around 115 days of racing. To win six bumps that number up to about 138 days. That is five months of racing without hard crashes, sickness, flat tires a inopportune time or a million things that can go wrong.

If anyone can repudiate time’s grip on a would-be six-time winner, it is Mr. Lance Armstrong.